Ruble in the crosshairs of Russia Ukraine Peace talks!

Ruble in the crosshairs of Russia Ukraine Peace talks!

As the Russian and Ukrainian delegation are meeting in Turkey for starting dialogue and negotiation for ending the conflict between them, Ruble is trapped in the crosshairs of peace talks.

Ruble is consolidating at around 80 level against USD since last few days on the hopes that negotiations would be successful in ending the war.

  • My view is that there will be disappointment for the hopefuls and war won’t end soon because west and Ukraine are interested in prolonging the war as it benefits them. If USA and its President Trump would have been genuinely interested in stopping the war and reaching a mutually agreeable deal then it would have stopped the supply of arms and ammunitions to Ukraine but as far as I know the supply has in fact increased.

  • So called “Minerals deal” signed by USA with Ukraine is also a sideshow by Trump for his domestic voters to show that USA would now recover money given to Ukraine but in reality it can be an excuse to give more money to Ukraine. 

  • Europe is also being pushed by USA to spend more money on defence and arms and ammunitions which indicates that there would not be peace in the near term as Europe is getting ready for prolonged confrontation with Russia. 

  • Already before the starting of negotiation talks, Europe has declared that they believe Russia is not serious about peace and wants to continue the war and so Europe also would announce more sanctions on Russia.

  • Trump has also started talking that if Russia does not agree for peace deal then he may impose more sanctions on Russia.

So ground is being prepared for imposing more sanctions on Russia in order to break Russia. But this would only prompt Russian President to increase the intensity of war and go for the ultimate kill which would only ensure the complete destruction of Ukraine and also of Europe as Russia would be left with no other choice. In such a scenario, ruble can’t be strong and so would depreciate against USD.